El Nino: The lack of rain and snowfall in the hills this season has raised concerns, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts that the ongoing El Nino conditions will become “neutral” before the monsoon season begins in June. El Nino conditions that are neutral suggest that the monsoon rains for the following season won’t be negatively impacted.
The India Meteorological Department’s Director General, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, noted that there are a number of additional factors that may affect the monsoon. The first monsoon forecast for 2024 (June–September) will be released by IMD in April. Over 70% of India’s yearly precipitation falls during these four months, making the upcoming monsoon rains vital to the country’s agricultural sector.
The monsoon of 2023 was not only the weakest in the previous five years, but it was also characterized by an uneven four-month rainfall period. June’s total precipitation was 91% of the benchmark long period average (LPA), while July’s precipitation was significantly above average at 113% of the benchmark.
September saw an abundance of precipitation at 113% of the normal benchmark, while August saw the least amount of precipitation since 1902 at just 64% of LPA. Regarding the current cold wave, Mohapatra stated that this year there haven’t been any notable western disturbances in December or January that have resulted in a lot of rainfall in the area.
Long-term trends from 1990 onward, according to an IMD study, showed that total rainfall in December through February was trending downward, particularly in the hills of Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh. Although more northwest regions have irrigation systems to meet the demand for standing crops like wheat, pulses, and oilseeds, Mohapatra noted that the lack of rainfall caused by fewer western disturbances this season does affect crops like apples and the tourism industry.
The upcoming monsoon is expected to be “normal “
The upcoming monsoon is expected to be “normal,” according to the preliminary monsoon forecast guidance for 2024 from private weather forecaster Skymet. With a strong start and a finish that falls somewhere in the middle of the typical range of 96–104% of LPA, this might be one of the better typical monsoon years.
According to Skymet, ‘neutral’ conditions ahead of the monsoon could be predicted by the ocean waters’ impending cooling. El Nino, the monsoon-disturbing weather pattern that caused the monsoon of 2023 to be “below normal,” is predicted to weaken, according to Skymet’s Managing Director, Jatin Singh.
