Exit polls: On this day, June 1, the final and seventh phase of polling will take place in the Lok Sabha Elections 2024. In 57 seats spread across seven states and a Union Territory, 904 candidates—among them Prime Minister Narendra Modi—will face off in this phase’s vote.
Following the conclusion of the election, attention will turn to exit surveys that forecast the formation of the next Indian government by either the opposition INDIA group led by Congress or the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Prime Minister Modi.
What do Exit Polls Mean?
A post-election survey that forecasts the expected winners and their margin of victory is known as an exit poll. Based on comments from voters gathered by survey companies following the polls, the forecasts were made. Exit polls are intended to gauge public opinion far in advance of the official results being declared, although their accuracy has previously come under fire.
On June 4, the results will be officially announced by the Election Commission of India (ECI).
When are the results of the exit polls made public?
Exit polls cannot be conducted during the voting process, but they can be released 30 minutes after the last vote is cast, according to the ECI.
Per the regulations, results from the exit poll cannot be made public before June 1, the last day of voting, at 6:30 p.m. Section 126A of the Representation of the People’s Act, 1951 governs this.
Where can I view the exit polls?
The best time for TV networks to start airing their predictions is on Saturday between 6:30 and 7 p.m. These will also be broadcast live on YouTube and other social media sites.
Even before the last round of voting is complete, a lot of TV networks begin airing exit polls under alternative names or titles, maybe out of interest in finding out which party would win.
In 2014, what happened in 2019?
Approximately 285 seats were predicted for the NDA by pollsters ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections. Nevertheless, the BJP-led coalition secured 353 seats, a resounding victory, with the BJP obtaining 303 seats on its own. With 52 seats won by the Congress, the UPA secured 91 seats.
The NDA’s predicted seat total in the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections was between 257 and 340. Still, the NDA secured 336 seats.
According to experts, exit poll accuracy has increased with time.
India’s exit polling history
When the Indian Institute of Public Opinion performed a post-poll survey during the second Lok Sabha elections in 1957, it was the first exit poll ever undertaken in India.
In 1996, the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) was contracted by the state-run broadcaster Doordarshan to carry out exit surveys all over the nation. Surveys were popular after that, and many participants jumped in, the majority of them through partnerships with television networks.
At the general election of 2024, the BJP-led NDA hopes to win 400 seats in order to secure a record third term under Prime Minister Modi. Opposition parties led by the Congress, together with the INDIA bloc, pose a threat to the ruling alliance.
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