The Ficci Survey- According to the latest Economic Outlook Survey released by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) on Monday, the economy is predicted to develop at 6.3 percent in the fiscal year 2023-24 (FY24). A stable financial sector, robust urban demand, an increase in private investment due to the government’s front-loading of capex, a pickup in real estate, and the festival season are all likely to be contributing factors.
“The most recent round of the survey forecasts annual median GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 6.3 percent for 2023-24, with a minimum and maximum growth estimate of 6.0 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively.” “GDP growth is expected to moderate in 2023-24, from 7.2% in 2022-23,” according to the survey.
Furthermore, the study warns that persistent headwinds from geopolitical stress, slower development in China, the lag effect of monetary tightening, and a below-normal monsoon offer downside risks to growth.
Agriculture and allied activity growth is predicted to drop to 2.7% in the current fiscal year from 4% in FY23, as El Nio has impacted the spatial distribution of rainfall this monsoon season. Meanwhile, the industry and services sectors are expected to expand by 5.6% and 7.3%, respectively.
According to the study, the path of inflation remains unpredictable, with CPI-based inflation anticipated to remain at 5.5 percent in FY24, with a minimum and maximum range of 5.3 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively.
“The CPI inflation rate may have peaked, but price upside risks remain.” Cereal prices have been volatile. The acreage coverage of pulses and oilseeds under kharif crops has decreased. The collapse of the Black Sea grain deal may have an impact on India, which imports a large portion of its sunflower oil from Ukraine and Russia. Weather-related risks have recently increased, adding to the volatility of food prices. The recent rise in crude prices may also contribute to the inflationary pressures, according to the report.
